Author Joe Novetsky
In our previous installment, we covered the first five weight classes, now on to the next five and the team race.
165
165 is possibly the weakest weight in college. With Tyler Caldwell and Andrew Howe both redshirting this year to train for the Olympics, and Jordan Burroughs graduating, the weight class has lost some serious talent. This weight is also a one horse race, with David Taylor being virtually guaranteed to win the weight unless he loses some major extremity, and if that happens, he’ll probably win it anyways. Taylor, a sophomore from Penn State, went undefeated until the finals of last year’s tournament, and then got caught in a move and pinned by Bubba Jenkins. This season, Taylor has won by major decision or better in all but two matches, one to Brandon Hatchett early in the season, and the other to Mike Evans, the Big 10 runner-up. The toughest “competition” that Taylor will have to face, and I put that word in quotations since Tayor vs. any of those guys is a mismatch on the level of those early season college football games where LSU plays the likes of St. Mary’s School For the Blind, will be Shane Onufer, from Wyoming. Onufer has one loss this season, to Robert Kokesh, from Nebraska, but neither of them are any sort of match for Taylor. Evans, an Iowa freshman, has been impressive all year too, but he also got majored by Taylor in the Big 10 finals. Josh Asper, a junior from Maryland, was the presumed 2 or 3 seed heading into the ACC tourney, but a loss in the finals of the ACC tournament brought him down to the 7 seed while landing him a pigtail match (the equivalent of a play-in) in the process. He’s got an uphill road, getting Onufer in the quarters and a decently tough Cody Yohn in the second round. Evans has a pretty clerar road to the semis, where he’ll meet Taylor, Onufer has to get through Asper in the quarters and Andy Sorenson in the semis, but he should roll. Regardless, the take-home lesson from this weight is that Taylor wins. My AA choices are Taylor, Onufer, Andrew Sorenson, Evans, Kokesh, Pete Yates, Asper, and Hatchett.
174
This weight is the most top-heavy weight in college. We have three undefeated wrestlers, each with a group of supporters, and a pack of about five or six wrestlers who are a clear two steps behind the three undefeateds. To go in seeding order, at the 1 seed we have Ed Ruth. Ruth placed third last year, and this year has scored bonus points in all but three of his matches. He breezed through the Big 10 tournament, winning by 12, 8, and 11, and has the largest contingent of fans in his corner. The 2 seed is Chris Perry. Perry started the season at 184, until his uncle and coach, John Smith, needed him to move down for the match against Iowa, since Iowa is much stronger at 174 than 184. Perry proceeded to beat Ethen Lofthouse in a close match, and has continued his undefeated season at 174. The 3 seed is Nick Amuchastegui. Amuchastegui, a senior from Stanford, is the defending runner-up, was the top ranked wrestler at the weight, but he didn’t wrestle a particularly strong slate compared to Ruth and Perry, so he dropped to the 3 seed, despite having beaten Ruth in the quarters of last year’s tourney. I also really like Amuchastegui for entirely non-wrestling reasons, primarily being that he is carrying a 3.98 GPA while getting a masters in mechanical engineering and has a job at a national lab lined up for next year. Even though he doesn’t get the same amount of press as Ruth or Perry, he’s my favorite to win the weight. Other big wrestlers at this weight are Logan Storley and Ethen Lofthouse. Storley took 2 out of 3 from Lofthouse, en route to being the Big 10 runner-up, while Lofthouse is a good young wrestler who, despite a few odd losses, has wrestled really well all year. We also have Ryan DesRoches, from Cal Poly, who only has three losses, two of which are to Amuchastegui. Overall, this weight is a bit top-heavy, and my AAs are Amuchastegui, Ruth, Perry, Storley, Lofthouse, DesRoches, Jimmy Sheptock, and Jordan Blanton. My dark horses are Justin Zeerip and Lee Munster.
184
184 is arguably the deepest weight in the country. This weight is rock solid through about seed 10 or so, and the lower seeded and unseeded wrestlers are still pretty solid and have wins against good competition. The 1 seed is Joe LeBlanc, whose only loss comes to Chris Perry, and Perry isn’t at the weight anymore. The 2 seed is Robert Hamlin, or as Fretwell calls him, the Vermonster. His only loss is to Steve Bosak, the 4 seed. Ben Bennett, the 3 seed has two losses to Hamlin, but other than that he’s been scoring bonus points on pretty much all of his matches. Bosak split with Hamlin, but he has losses to LeBlanc and Quentin Wright. Kevin Steinhaus has losses to Bosak and Bennett, but beat Quentin Wright and won the Big 10. Quentin Wright is the returning national champion and is seeded 6, and even though he didn’t have the greatest of Big 10 tourneys, losing to Josh Ihnen, the fact that the returning national champion is seeded 6, despite having three losses all season is testament to how loaded this weight is. My personal AA predictions, and given the weight they should be taken with a massive grain of salt, are LeBlanc, Hamlin, Steinhaus, Bennett, Wright, Bosask, Austin Trotman, and Ihnen. My dark horses are Jake Swartz, Ryan Loder, Grant Gambrall, and Jonathan Fausey.
197
This weight is much more orderly than 184. Cam Simaz is your 1 seed, and he’s the favorite to win it all. He’s scored bonus in 21 matches, and he seems to be fully recovered from an injury that kept him out for all of December. Your 2 seed is Chris Honeycutt, possibly the most muscle-bound wrestler in the tournament with the possible exception of Molinaro. Honeycutt’s been dominant all season as well, with his only loss coming to Matt Wilps in the EWL finals. Despite this, there is virtual consensus that either Simaz or Honeycutt will win it all. Wilps is the 3 seed, and has two losses to Honeycutt and a loss to Matt Powless, but he avenged those losses by beating Honeycutt at EWL finals. Chris Boley has only one loss to some random guy from Wartburg, and he’s your 4 seed. Cayle Byers is the 5, and he’s got losses to Alfonzo Hernandez and Sonny Yohn. Overall, your AAs will be Simaz, Wilps, Honeycutt, Byers, Boley, Brent Haynes, Yohn, and Matt Powless. The dark horses are Mario Gonzalez, Alfonzo Hernandez, and Micah Burak.
285
I was considering not looking at the heavyweights for three reasons. First, I didn’t really follow heavyweight. Second, I find heavyweight wrestling to be boring, and third, due to a combination of the first two reasons, I don’t really know much about the heavyweights. Even so, I’ll do my best and give you the rundown of who’s up there. Your 1 seed is defending runner-up Ryan Flores, he’s undefeated for the season and beat defending champion and 4 seed Zach Rey in the EIWA finals. Tony Nelson is your 2 seed, and his main loss is to Gelogaev, who’s out with a torn pec. The 3 seed is Clayton Jack, who’s just enormous. His sole loss is a 2-0 decision to Nelson, and he’s just been rolling over and through people. Rey is your defending national champ at the 4 seed and he has losses to Levi Cooper and Flores. Bobby Telford is the 5 seed and has been a bit inconsistent, but still has wins against some really serious guys. My AAs are Nelson, Rey, Flores, Jack, Cameron Wade, Telford, Cooper, and Tucker Lane
Team Race
This year’s team race is really interesting. Penn State is the clear favorite, bringing three undefeated wrestlers to St. Louis, but they do have some holes in their lineup. Megaludis can be counted on to win one match, and after that he’s out of his depth, Frank Martelotti has a first round date with Jordan Oliver, they have nobody at 141, and McIntosh has a second round appointment with Cam Simaz. Basically, PSU is relying on Molinaro, Taylor and Ruth to bonus into the finals, and preferably to win, though Ruth is far from a sure bet to win 174. Oklahoma State was the presumed contender with the best chance against PSU, but then Gelogaev tore a pec at National Duals. They have a tough spot at 125, where Morrison has a second round match with Zach Sanders, and 141 is an absolute disaster, with Kindig having a first round match against Mangrum, Penn State has a similar situation wih Martelotti vs. Oliver, but they also have a lot more room for error. Also, the guy they’re trotting out at heavy in place of Gelogaev has only four matches against tournament-bound competition, including a shellacking by Tony Nelson, means that their unseeded and low seeded wrestlers like Dallas Bailey and Albert White, really have to wrestle out of their minds in order to keep the Cowboys in the hunt. Iowa only has one probable national champion in McDonough, and they’re really thin in the upper weights, though the return of Derek St. John, and his getting the 2 seed have boosted their chances exponentially. McDonough, Ramos, and Marion are solid and should all go deep. Marion has a quarters match with Novachkov, but that should be fine. Ramos should breeze to the semis and McDonough should win. St. John should be able to make it to the finals. He seems healthy, and he’s wrestling against people he’s beat already. Evans should breeze to the semis and then get massacred by Taylor, and Lofthouse should be able to make it to the quarters. Iowa’s problematic weights are 149, where they have nobody, 184, where they have Grant Gambrall, and 285, where they have a streaky Bobby Telford. Cornell, the defending runner-up is in deep trouble. They only have four seeded wrestlers, and while I think two of those will win national titles, and a third is in the hunt, they also got some terrible draws from their unseeded wrestlers that do not help a team with zero margin for error. Chris Villalonga has a first round match with Molinaro, and Mike Nevinger has a second round match with Kendrick Maple. Before the brackets came out Cornell had a slim shot, now, particularly with Villalonga’s situation, if the Cornell unseededs wrestle way above their level, the team might get third, or fourth. Minnesota is the team with the best shot to stop Penn State from repeating. Even though they don’t have any great shots at individual national titles, since Sanders is 0-7 vs. McDonough, and the rest of their higher seeds are in very tough weights, Minnesota has the most consistent team top to bottom. Pretty much every Minnesota wrestler should be able to make it to the quarterfinals, and every one of their wrestlers is seeded in the top 10. Outside of nobody representing them at 157, Minnesota’s lineup is rock solid. Penn State might have the studs, but they also have far more holes than Minnesota. I’m personally pulling for the Golden Gophers to take the crown, but it’ll be an uphill climb. They could very well repeat their story from ten years ago. No national champions but a national title. My final standings for the team race are
1. Penn State
2. Minnesota
3. Iowa
4. Oklahoma State
5. Cornell
Matches start at 12 PM ET, sit back and enjoy.
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