Deep, But Do the Big Boys Have the Goods? Knicks 2nd Half Preview

I’ve been sucked in!  I just can’t get enough of the chaotic spin moves, flip shots and wild dunks.  The threes, the defense, the crowd.  The undeniable exhilaration is there – in the stands, on the bench and on the court itself.  The childish excitement of grown men, the copycat Discount Double Check with the exuberance of the Green Bay faithful.  It’s all real and its infectious…but can it last?

The short answer, it will last into the playoffs, once there, the big boys need to produce.

The borderline pathetic first third of the season focused on iso for Melo, horrible point guard play and no defense. 

The Knicks biggest strength since the Lin-mergence (is combining Lin and emergence taking it too far?  I hate stupid combo words so Lin-sanity was too much for me, but the proverbial cat has a thousands of miles away from the bag at this point so screw it – Lin-mergence it is) has been the newfound excitement and success.  However, the most lasting value of the Lin experience is the depth that it has generated.  The following players should have some role in the Knicks rotation:

Melo
Amare
Tyson
Lin
Fields
Baron Davis
Iman Shumpert
J.R. Smith
Steve Novak
Jared Jeffries???

It’s virtually unheard of to have 9 players who need to see action.  Oh, and that doesn’t include Jeffries who plays good D but is brutal offensively and has thus far been a part of the rotation OR Bill Walker who has lost his spot due to injury/J.R. Smith’s return from China. 

Is this good depth or bad depth – remember, not all depth is good.  Having 4 shooting guards and 3 small forwards means no rhythm for anyone.  But the beauty of the Knicks’ depth is the role-player mentality of these guys. 

A Closer Look:

The Defense Group – This group is led by Tyson and Shumpert.  Tyson’s defensive superiority is well-established and has a ring attached to it that he picked up in Dallas.  Shumpert has been the shutdown guy off the bench.  He can take guys off the dribble, but he uses the majority of his energy defensively.  That in your grill style is cheered as emphatically in the Garden as Novak 3s and Lin And1s.  Jeffries, if he remains in the rotation is also part of this group.  He is long and the best the Knicks have on the Dirks of the world.

Instant Offense – Novak and J.R. just fire fire fire and the drive and kick to those guys has been working beautifully.  Both are averaging 11 to 12 PPG in approximately 25 minutes a game.  They ignite the team and the crowd which is precisely the objective of Instant Offense.  Side Point: Smith makes some dumb plays and can’t hit a free throw at the moment; however, he deserves props for his defense.  Novak has become a face – shooting 48% on 3 since Coach Mike said to hell with this and put Lin and Novak in the game.  He and Lin clearly bonded on the bench during the borderline pathetic period noted above.  The admiration and awareness of each other makes the drive and kick so effective.

Run and Gun Group – most of this group plays D, but is notable for lots of fast break dunk opportunities.  They create and give away turnovers regularly, but they are exciting and can wreak havoc for a while.  Lin or Baron (an effective backup who can be good in short spurts) at the point, Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Melo filling the lanes and Amare or Jeffries as the trailer.  Coach Mike throws em out there and they know the role, just Go, Go, Go until the shift is over (yikes, a hockey reference – but it’s really a good one, this group sprints until they can barely breath).

The Core – Here is where trouble starts, by trouble I mean awful defense.  Fields and Tyson play D; Lin tries his best but just is not very good at it.  The big boys…the ones with mega-contracts, well they are awful at defense.  Amare makes the occasional nice block, but he is lazy on rebounds and is terrible at clogging the lane.  Amare should never watch a guard dribble by him in the paint, but time and again he just gets out of the way. 

And Melo, he refuses to make defense a priority.

Let’s talk about the offense.  I maintain the value of Melo dribbling the ball up court (see my previous post at http://www.talkingnysports.com/2012/02/how-to-save-carmelo-let-him-dribble.html).  The restlessness of the crowd is palpable when Melo is jabbing his foot with the ball on his hip, standing at the wing, in the dreaded isolation.

Amare may very well be hurt.  He has the burst on occasion, but he lacks the consistent burst of his early days as a Knick. 

Success in the NBA demands relentlessness.  If Amare and Carmelo can’t mentally commit to defense, the Knicks can’t make a playoff run.  If Carmelo tenaciously, aggressively and relentlessly moves the ball quickly (via drive, shot or pass) when Lin passes him the ball on the wing, the stagnancy of the offense will not exist. 

Playoff Outlook: The Knicks are certainly a playoff team.  The ability to manage minutes as a result of the depth is helpful.   However, simply, the Knicks have far more talent than the teams in the 9^th through 12 slots in the conference (Milwaukee, Cleveland, Detroit, and Toronto).  Expectations are well beyond making the playoffs and avoiding Miami/Chicago in Round 1 is a key component to a lengthy Knicks run.  Keep an eye on that 6^th seed (currently Atlanta) as that is the golden ticket to Indiana and a manageable round 1 opponent.

Knick playoff success will rely heavily on the offensive output of Melo and Amare.  Can Amare stop taking jump shots and use his athleticism to make plays at the rim.  He has always caught the ball on the pick and roll 15 feet from the hoop – the old Amare would drive, but it’s been happening less and less.  Can Carmelo recognize that he is now a cog in Jeremy Lin’s wheel?  Carmelo will be given time to settle in and realize who runs the show.  If Carmelo realizes that he will still get his 20 with Lin controlling the offense, and molds into the elite scorer who drives the basketball and uses his jump shot as a switcheroo on the defense, this team can take Miami or Chicago to a game 7. 

The Knicks should plan for a round 1 win and hope for a trip to the Eastern Conference Championship.  I can’t see this team beating Chicago and Miami in succession (barring injuries), but the insanity at MSG is phenomenal and, if the big boys leverage the depth, use the energy the depth saves them advantageously and maintain relentless aggressiveness – a deep April run is not inconceivable.