The most important previews that must be discussed are of course the Giants and Jets - after all, we are in NYC.
Jets:
Most important player: I'd have to go with Thomas Jones; however, Mark Sanchez is not a bad answer. Thomas Jones is already 31 and needs to have a superior season for Jets to be in contention. Without exaggeration, he needs to repeat last season's performance (1300+ yards and 12+ TDs). The one good thing about Jones with respect to his age is that he got a late start in terms of starting the NFL, his first year of a full load of carries was 2004/2005 - perhaps he still has some horsepower left in those legs.
Biggest Issue: I don't think QB is that issue, receiver is. Jerricho Cotchery is a solid receiver, but he doesn't have the speed/size combo of a #1. Because of the lack of ability on the outside, Dustin Keller and Leon Washington will likely play a huge role in the flat.
Results: The AFC East is playing the AFC and NFC South - giving them the toughest of schedules. The Jets schedule is considered the 7th toughest - although, I never really understood the actual schedule rating system because of the parody and vast record changes form year to year. The Jets are starting with 2 home games against strong teams and 3 potentially tough road games. Starting worse than 2-3 will really cripple the team if it expects to have a shot at a wild card. The last three games before the bye week (in week 9) are a bit easier (Buffalo, @Oakland, Miami). If the Jets end up 1-4 in those first five, winning those 3 favorable games are essentially must wins.
I expect the Jets to be 3-5 or 4-4 going into the bye. Watch for that seemingly joke Oakland game - it's one the Jets often lose.
The Jets second half begins with a potential tough one against the Jaguars (the Jags won't be seen by too many people - none is Jacksonville - but they are often a really strong team with excellent coaching and a solid defense/run combo). The next 2 games are rough - Pats in Foxboro and then Carolina. December is not easy either - 3 tough ones in a row (@Tampa, Atlanta, @Indy).
Overall: The Jets will learn a lot about themselves this year and almost every time a team starts a rookie QB, there is a serious learning curve. With solid lines and a quality run game, I see the Jets as a 7-9 or 8-8 team. I see the Jets perhaps fighting for a 9-7 wild card spot if they split with Miami and Buffalo and get off to an okay start.
And...
Giants:
Most Important Player: It has to be Brandon Jacobs. This team will always be as good as the running game. There may be 8 guys in the box on a consistent basis and the Giants are simply going to have to run over those 8 and then go for big plays with the receivers playing off the run.
Biggest Issue: This is an easy one - special teams gunner (just kidding), the receiving core is seriously lacking. The Hixon, Steve Smith and Nix have little experience and many question the physical skills of Smith and Hixon on the outside. Can they beat single coverage often enough to open up running lanes for Jacobs and Bradshaw. Ely Manning has never been in the top 10 in QB ratings to begin with, to say that he will be above "solid" with no receiving core is a stretch.
Results:
In the toughest division in football, 11 wins is the maximum number I can expect. I think Dallas is going to take a step back this year, but the Redskins may be better than last year and Phili is really good. I can't imagine the Giants doing better than 4-2 in the division. That means that the Giants should win the division if they can get to 7-3 against everyone else. The first 5 of the 10 games are 2 cupcakes and 3 very winnable games. @Tampa should be won, @KC and Oakland at home are definitely cupcake games. The last 2 are @New Orleans and Arizona at home - they should win those 2. From the standpoint that it is hard to win 5 straight, I would like to say they would go 4-1 in those games, but I'll go with 5-0. Can they pull off 2-3 the rest of the way to win the division? They have one more cupcake (@Denver); however, the rest of the games are not easy. Carolina gave the Giants trouble last year, Atlanta won't be an easy game (especially coming off the bye), San Diego is considered one of the best teams in the NFL (Rivers plays with a little extra against Eli and the Giants) and closing @Minnesota with the division on the line will not be fun.
I expect the Giants to get to 11 wins, but it won't be easy. Don't be surprised to see them need to win in the Metrodome to win the division. The Vikings may also need that game to win their division - a hell of a game to watch, an absolute battle!
So...11-5 it is!
Here is the playoff prediction...
AFC:
(1) New England
(2) San Diego
(3) Pittsburgh
(4) Indy
(5) Baltimore
(6) Tennessee
Wild Card Weekend
PITTSBURGH over Tennessee
INDY over Baltimore
Division Weekend
NEW ENGLAND over Indy
PITTSBURGH over San Diego
AFC Championship Game
NEW ENGLAND over Pittsburgh
NFC
(1) Giants
(2) Atlanta
(3) Arizona
(4) Green Bay
(5) Philadelphia
(6) Washington
Wild Card Weekend
ARIZONA over Washington
PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay (Phili can handle the weather)
Divisional Weekend
ARIZONA over Atlanta (playing the dome will really help Warner)
PHILADELPHIA over Giants (really close game!!!)
NFC Championship Game
PHILADELPHIA over Arizona
NEW ENGLAND over Philadelphia
Hope you enjoy! Keep coming back for NFL Hindsight!
Yaros
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