In early April, I wrote an American League preview. Some of my predictions have been ridiculous and some have been quite good. Now that the season is half over, I will revisit those predictions. I will also be writing a second half preview this week! Look for it! The way I'm doing this "prediction correction" is by bolding new comments within the original post. Here we go:
AL East: This division may be won or lost in April. Dumb comment! If the Yankees come out fast (perhaps thanks to a boost from opening the new stadium) and then get the extra help when A-rod comes back, they will win the division. In all likelihood, the Yankees, Sox and Rays will all have 89+ wins. If the Yankees play above .550 ball pre-A-rod, they will get to the 96 number that will probably win this division. Looks like all 3 teams will get to 90 so, wahoo on that one. Although most people assumed that, so I refuse to pat myself on the back.
Health concerns are obviously an issue for Burnett, Sabathia (he pitched a ton of innings last year), Kazmir (has only reached 30 starts in 2 of his 4 full seasons), Jon Lester (will the major increase in innings last year hurt his arm) among others. Will Mo Rivera stay healthy? 1 for 5, Kazmir had issues (at least I'm above the Mendoza line)
The bottom line is the the Yankees have the best lineup, but I think they will fall short and the Red Sox should take the division with a strong year from Josh Beckett and a huge boost from John Smoltz in June. Must add that the Sox will also take the division because of head to head matches! If the Yankees win 5 of the 19 games I'll be surprised!
The Rays will win a lot of games and Pat Burrell's added bat should help extend the lineup; however, the pen will not come close to the success of last year and they will not make the playoffs. Oops on Burrell, the guy forgot how to hit the long ball! I was right about the pen! But the starters are so freaken good!
The Yankees will probably get off to a slow start (like they always do), but make the playoffs entirely based on a high payroll and the ability to add talent mid-year. I expect them to win 92 games and finish 4 behind the Sox. Looks OK
AL Central: This is a tight division that includes a major disappointment (Tigers), a consistent lunch pale team (Twins), a consistent team with a crazy manager (see below) and a very talented team with the incumbent CYA winner. Funny video, but boy was I wrong about Lee!
They can all win the division. I expect a rebound year from Carmona and the Indians to win the game. If he falters, then look for the White Sox to come through again. The Mauer injury may linger and will badly hurt the Twins. EEEEEEEKKKKK!!!!
AL West: Is this even close? Well, the A's always seem to find solid starters within and have signed or traded for some really solid guys including a stud named Matt Holliday. If they are not in the race, he will be gone by the deadline. Holliday will be traded. The A's know he is not coming back, so they will trade him for a bag of ball on the 31st.
The Abreu pickup should help the Angels a lot and the pitching injuries won't knock them off the very tall pedestal. I thought they would win it all last year - didn't happen. Look for them to run away with the division with 93 wins and no one within 8 games. I should be okay on this one. The Rangers may push the Anaheim.
AL wildcard: This is clearly the Yankees or Rays. For the above reasons, the Yankees will take the wild card.
The Yankees and Angels will meet in the division series again and I look for the Yankees to take the series based on the new pitching additions and the K-rod-less bullpen out west. The Red Sox should have no trouble with either the White Sox or Indians. I still think this is true, the Angels pen will kill them in the playoffs.
Based on home field and the superior pitching of the Red Sox, they will beat the Yankees in the ALCS.
AL MVP: the newcomer on the Yanks, Mark Teixeira should really benefit from the jet stream to right field at the new stadium and the countless runners on base in front of him. I expect .315 avg with 35 home runs and 135 RBI. That should take the award. His numbers may be better than this. But, Mauer will get it if he hits above .390 and the Twins win their division.
The Cy Young will go to Josh Beckett in another masterful year in his career long one year up/one year down formula. I think this one will be right on! Its a done deal if Halladay if shipped off to the NL. Greinke's numbers are on the downhill and his team stinks!
I expect a 21-7 record with 200+ strike outs and a low 3 ERA for Beckett.
I don't think I did too poorly. The Indians are awful and so are the A's, but I give myself and overall pat on the back.
Yaros
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