NL Playoff Preview!

In this second rate league, I will use the same methods of analysis (win total) to determine who will make the playoffs as I did for the American League. The only warning about that system that I think changes when analyzing the NL is that in recent years the average win total of playoff teams has been much lower than in the past. The Cardinals had excellent years earlier this decade and the famous Braves of the 1990s also impacted the results. The average win total among NL playoff teams since 1996 is 94. The average this year will likely be more in the range of 91 or 92 wins due to the paltry play of the NL West and the erratic play of the NL east. Note that this year will likely be the first time the NL has broken the APWT (Average Playoff Win Total) of 90 in 3 years.

Division Winners:
New York Mets - 91-71 (If Billy Wagner Pitches by September 15th)
-Wow, this is a very close race and I am very tempted to pick the Phillies because of last year's collapse; however, the maturation of Mike Pelfrey and the addition of Johan should put the underachieving Mets over the edge. The Phillies rotation is pretty inconsistent and is not nearly as deep as the Mets.

The Mets do have the advantage of playing the Cubs when the games will be meaningless for Lou Pinella's team.

They do have a very rough ending of the season with 7 games against the Cubs and Marlins. The one condition to this prediction is that Billy Wagner comes back soon. If he doesn't then the Mets bullpen will likely blow 2-3 games the Mets should win. This will change the division winner. If the Mets blow 2 games then there will be a tie with the Phillies at 89-73. This will happen if Wagner does not come off the DL. The Mets will likely pitch Johan Santana against Cole Hamels of the Phillies. The Mets would likely win that match up and take the division with a 90-73 record. I suspect that Wagner will be back; therefore, I think the Mets will win the division outright. Nothing would surprise me with a division full of completely erratic teams. If Santana is not available to start the one game playoff, DO NOT START PEDRO. He is old and has a tendency to give up home runs. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and the Met Killer Pat Burrell in the lineup, I would throw any other starter the Mets expect to have available (Perez or Pelfrey).

Cubs - 100-62
-This is a fabulous team that has built a solid lead that will not fall during the season's last month. The Cubs do play a bunch of huge games against division foe Milwaukee; however, the loss of Ben Sheets today may be costly for the Brew Crew (although they should have expected an injury from him in a key moment). The Cubs also play a lot of road games during the last month including 3 in Milwaukee to close the season. None the less, being the best team in the NL is helpful and the Cubs should cruise to the Central Division title.

Arizona Diamonbacks - 84-78
-The D-Backs have 2 of the 3 best pitchers in the division on staff (Haren, Lincecum and Webb - in alphabetical order in case you were wondering). This is an advantage (assuming Webb rights himself) that will win them the division despite paltry second half play including a pathetic 3-7 in their last 10 and an awful offense (they added Adam Dunn - btw, Micah Owings was the player to be named in that deal for Dunn, thus eliminating the positive offensive gain Dunn provides - only kidding, but it turns out the Owings likely is a better offensive player than pitcher). If Arizona falters (which they easily could if Webb continues to pitch poorly) than the Dodgers could catch them. The Dodgers have a very easy upcoming schedule (but their pitching is not good at all and the hitting is inconsistent) and will finish 82-80 if they play up to par.

All this awful play is the backdrop for a possible playoff birth for the Colorado Rockies (the who? yes, the Rockies are trying to pull a similar stunt to last year. Only, they have less ground to make up this year. However, they do have a ways to go and likelihood of pulling it off 2 years in a row is beyond remote. I give them a fighting chance, but they will likely fall short, finishing up 15 and 8 for a record of 80-82. They may win a couple more than that and if the D-Backs and Dodgers continue to lose 6 or 7 out of every 10, we will see the Rockies in the playoffs once again - I would love that!

Wild Card - Milwaukee Brewers - 96-66
-The Brewers heard dreadful news today with the groin pull of Ben Sheets. It is unclear how bad the pull is, therefore, a couple of days will be needed to determine their playoff chances. However, there is not much of question as to which team will win the wild card. The Brewers are 6 up in the loss column and have a better 1, 2 combo than anyone (if Sheets doesn't miss any/much time). The pen has problems and Eric Gagne should either start taking steroids again (something I would not recommend) or find another profession because he is awful! The Brew Crew have a ton of home games left and will enjoy them. This is a fun team with a lot of talent and some great young players (Ryan Braun will probably make the Hall if he stays healthy - wowie zowie (I hate Susan Waldman), a bold prediction).

Playoff Predictions...

Brewers over Mets
-This assumes Ben Sheets' health. The Mets have a deeper pitching staff; however, that doesn't do much good in a short series. Also, having a worse bullpen doesn't suit the Mets well. Also, Pedro may start game 2 of that series, that is a bad mismatch considering Pedro's mediocrity this year. This will be a great series that will end with a 5th game.

Diamondbacks over Cubs
-The Diamondbacks have a great 1,2 punch; however, they can not hit. This makes this series interesting. I think the D'backs have a great shot to take this series, but with no hitting if will be difficult to win. The Cubs obviously have a superior offense and home field advantage. They do lack experience and I wouldn't trust Ryan Dempster to out pitch Dan Haren. Webb is better than Zambrano (but it is close). Bottom line, good pitching beats good hitting and this will be a classic case of that. D'backs take it in 4!

NLCS
Brewers over Diamondbacks
-This prediction is entirely predicated on Ben Sheets' availability. C.C. is pitching like a man on a $120 million mission (o' wait, he is on that mission)! The questions raised by C.C.'s performance during last year's playoffs will likely be no issue against the poor hitting of Arizona. This will be a boring series to watch for the casual fan (Major League Baseball will cry when seeing the ratings for this series, and drooling if the Mets play the Cubs for the pennant), but will be a great match up. The Brewers line up will indeed struggle to score runs against the excellent D'back pitching - but the team can hit which should allow them to score a couple of runs a game and actually win this series. Also, Manny Parra is a solid number 3 starter and can compete with Randy Johnson. This will be a lengthy 7 gamer.