AL Playoff Predictions! (The one's everyone has waited for!)

Tom Tresh has consistently complained about my lack of willingness to predict who will make the playoffs. I will now make an attempt to determine who will get 'er done! The logic behind my predictions is the critical win total of 95. The average win total of AL playoff teams since 1996 (the first full season since the institution of the wild card) has been just over 95 with a couple of unbelievable seasons (114 for the Yankees in 1998 and 116 for the Mariners in 2001). Those 2 teams raised the average a bit and there were not really any low outliers (as there are in the NL when the Cardinals won 82 games and won the World Series). I therefore assumed 95 wins was a reasonable estimate.

Division winners:
Tampa Bay Rays - 97-65
-The Rays have a very division heavy schedule with only 8 of their last 33 against other teams (4 against Twins and Tigers). The Rays have not lost a series since the All Star Break and have played well through their significant injuries. This pick seems very logical to me and most other people at this point. Just think back to the All Star break when the Rays had just lost 7 straight and most people were writing them off as a young team with a hot start and a thick brick wall in front of them that would end their dreams of a division championship.

Chicago White Sox - 93-69
-The Sox have been playing well of late and have a strong pitching staff that will allow them to edge the Twins out by a couple of games. The bullpen is solid overall and with 4 solid starters (although not a single great starter - this will hurt them in the playoffs) they will excel for the rest of the season. One detriment is their many away games; however, the Twins (their only competition) have more away games and are just as bad on the road.

Los Angeles Angels - 100-62
-Likely the best team in the majors, the Angels don't have anything to play for except to not have an ear full from Mike Socia for playing poorly. However, the power of Socia's command over his team is significant and the Angels will not have any let down during September. They play half their upcoming games on the road, but the team has a better record on the road than at home. They are excited for the playoffs (and should be because they will do very well)! They are already 16 games away from clinching and have the pitching to win the World Series.

Wild Card - Red Sox - 92-70
-As much as I hate to say it, but the Yankees will likely need to sweep the Red Sox in Boston to win the wild card. If the Yankees are lucky enough to be in a position to potentially make the playoffs going into the last series of the season in Boston I will be rooting hard for them; however, the likelihood of sweeping Boston (in Boston with Beckett likely pitching a game) is unlikely and I can't logically predict that to happen. The Sox don't have a trip west of Texas and don't play the Angels again. The Twins will finish with 91 wins which will be just short of the playoffs. The Yankees will have the opportunity to tie the Red Sox and Twins with 91 wins going into the final series; however, will only win 2 out of 3 and fall 2 games short of the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.

Playoff Predictions...
Angels over Boston
-I think the key to this series will be John Lester against Ervin Santana in game 3 of the series. Ervin Santana has more playoff experience (Lester last year had a similar experience to Ervin's first playoff experience). Lackey and Beckett is a very good match-up as is Joe Saunders vs. Dice-K. Those games will probably be a split. If Beckett comes back for game 4 then Lackey would likely do the same. I would expect that to happen and for Saunders and Dice-K to pitch game 5. Dice-K has an issue with walks and the Angels are one of the most disciplined teams in baseball. This will give him problems. The bottom line is that the Angels have traditionally dominated the Red Sox in the playoffs (even when the Sox had the super clutch Manny Ramirez). The Angels will win the series in 5 games.

White Sox over Rays
-The key to this series is experience. Many of the White Sox have significant playoff experience as the team won the series in 2005. The Rays are very young and will be back with more success in future years. But almost no playoff experience will trump their home field advantage and the new found excitement in Tampa Bay. I am sure the popularity of the Rays in Tampa will not make the Steinbrenners too happy - that used to be Yankee territory. The White Sox will win the series in 4 games.

ALCS
Angels over White Sox
-The Angels pitching, in combination with their home field advantage will make the series not much of a contest. The Angels are very fundamentally sound and don't need insane rants by their manager to wake up for games. The Angels will win the ALCS in 5 games.

Yaros