In the words of Dick Enberg, "Oh My!". If this comment by Papi himself to the Boston Herald means bad news, the Yanks path becomes clearer.
If you look closely at the Sox pitching situation, Dice-K has a very good record this year, but he averages less than 6 innings a start. The awful middle relief the Red Sox possess limits his success. Lester has been excellent due to his dynamite fastball that moves both in and out to righties and lefties.
Moving down the line, Tim Wakefield and Mr. X (whoever Francona decides to use that day as their fifth starter - Masterson has been bad as a starter but Buchholz has been 10 times worse and Bartolo Colon is way to heavy to have an impact) are not consistant enough to rely on. The combination will likely win 40 to 50% of their games.
The real key is Beckett. When he plays in October, Josh Beckett is legendary; however, his regular season success varies by the year. Last year he was 20-7 and nearly won the Cy Young. However, this season is looking more like the 16-11 and 5.01 ERA he had 2 years ago. Beckett's stuff looks as good as ever, but hitters are hitting 15 points better on him than the last two years and he has already given up almost as many homers this year (20 starts thus far) as he did last year the entire season (30 starts).
Without Ortiz in the lineup, the Red Sox seriously lack power:
-Mike Lowell has no homers and 6 RBIs since the break.
-Even the red hot Dustin Pedroia only has 1 RBI since the all-star break.
-JD Drew only has 3 RBIs in that time.
Where will the production come from?
Youkilis and Jason Bay can not do it alone. The Red Sox will not make the playoffs if Ortiz is out for more than 2 or 3 weeks.
Yaros
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